Still on course for a record in 2024

Globally warmest March

The global average temperature in March was 0.73 degrees above the 1991-2020 average and 1.68 degrees above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. This marks the warmest March since records began in the Copernicus dataset in 1979. It is also the tenth consecutive month since June 2023 to record record global temperatures. The largest positive deviation compared to the long-term average was recorded in eastern North America, Greenland and eastern Russia. High values were also recorded in Central America and parts of South America. Cuba recorded the warmest March since records began. Unusually high temperatures were also recorded in many regions of Africa. In South Australia, it was the warmest March since records began in 1910.

Temperatures were well below average in western Siberia, the west of the USA and central Canada, the west and north of Australia, southern Chile and Argentina and parts of Antarctica.

In Europe, it was the second warmest March after 2014. As in February, the greatest deviations were observed in the central and eastern regions of the continent. Germany recorded the mildest March since records began in 1881, with a deviation of 2.9 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. In the Netherlands, it was also the mildest March since 1901, without a single day of frost, which has only happened once before. Austria also recorded the mildest March at low altitudes. Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland also reported the mildest March since records began. At the end of the month, a number of countries set new national March records: Moldova (29.7 degrees in Sîngerei), Albania (29.6 degrees in Kuçovë), Croatia (29.0 degrees in Osijek), Belarus (27.2 degrees in Lelchitsy), Poland (26.4 degrees in Tarlóv), Lithuania (25.5 degrees in Druskininkai), Latvia (22.8 degrees in Skulte) and Estonia (21.3 degrees in Valga).

Plenty of warm seawater, weakening of El Niño

The average temperature of the overlying air was also clearly above average over large parts of the oceans. No wonder, as the global sea surface temperature (SST) is at record levels. The averaged value between 60°S and 60°N was 21.07 degrees, the highest for a month since records began, slightly above the 21.06 degrees in February.

El Niño in the equatorial Pacific continues to weaken and is in its final phase. Over the next few weeks, a neutral state should develop, which will then transition into a new La Niña over the course of the summer.

February also at a record level

Last February was not only the mildest on record in Switzerland, it was also the warmest February ever recorded at a global level. It was the ninth month in a row to set new standards for the respective month – since June 2023, we have therefore been at an absolute record level. With an average temperature of 13.54 degrees, the excess compared to the current 1991-2020 standard was 0.81 degrees. The previous record from 2016 was therefore beaten by 0.12 degrees. According to Copernicus analysis data, the difference compared to pre-industrial times (1850-1900) is as much as +1.77 degrees.

Europe: March temperatures in February

It was unusually mild in Europe in particular. Here, the temperature level was 3.3 degrees above the climate norm, with Central and Eastern Europe showing the greatest deviations. Such temperatures are more in line with March than February. Broken down to individual countries, Hungary is at the top of this ranking with a deviation of +7 degrees (!).

Other regions with temperatures well above average were parts of Siberia, the eastern half of North America and from Africa to Western Australia. People in Asia in particular experienced a month that was too cold, with the deviations around the Sea of Okhotsk being the most negative.

El Niño weakens

El Niño is one of the factors responsible for this series of record-breaking warm months. However, this is likely to weaken significantly in the coming weeks, with models even forecasting a rapid transition to La Niña.
Similar to the land temperatures, the world's oceans are also significantly warmer than usual. Between 60° North and 60° South, the average surface temperature in February was 21.06 degrees – the first month with a temperature of over 21 degrees (previous record: August 2023 with 20.98 degrees). The following graph illustrates this very clearly.

In many places in the equatorial regions, we are even at absolute record levels. These ocean temperatures in combination with the imminent change to La Niña would mean an explosive mixture for the upcoming hurricane season. The first outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season should be published in around a month's time, we are looking forward to it.

Never warmer January globally

According to Copernicus analysis data, last January had a global average temperature of 13.14 degrees. Compared to the long-term norm (1991-2020), this corresponds to an excess of +0.7 degrees. According to climate science estimates, the difference to the pre-industrial level (1850-1900) was as much as +1.66 degrees. However, the positive temperature deviation in the first month of the new year was lower than in the last six months of the record year 2023. If you look at the developments over the last 40 or so Januaries, you can see a clear upward trend.

Contrasting picture in Europe

The picture in Europe is divided. Large parts of Scandinavia were once again too cold; in Finland, for example, it was the fourth month in a row with a negative deviation of at least 2 degrees; the last time there was a similar series was in the winter of 2009/10. Particularly noteworthy were the very cold days at the beginning of the month with temperatures of up to –44 degrees, the coldest it has been in Lapland for 25 years.

In the rest of Europe, however, it was almost consistently too mild. The largest temperature surplus was recorded from the Iberian Peninsula to the Alpine region. With a national deviation of +2.4 degrees compared to the norm, Spain even experienced the warmest January in recorded history. In Switzerland, the temperature level was around 1.5 degrees above the norm.

Outside Europe

The strongest positive temperature deviation outside Europe was recorded over western Canada, northwest Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. In Montreal, for example, it was the second month with a deviation of more than 4 degrees, and in northern Quebec the excess was almost 7 degrees! The excessively high temperatures in Africa were coupled with below-average rainfall, which further exacerbated the drought conditions. The South American continent also experienced remarkable heatwaves with countless temperature records. The first third of February was in no way inferior to January in this respect either.

That said, there were also regions with below-average temperatures. For example, a large part of eastern Russia, western Canada and parts of the United States.